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NBA: Game 5 Brings Adjusted Line
2008-06-17

It seemingly took Boston covering the pointspread in the first five games of the NBA Finals for oddsmakers to adjust, but finally, it appears they have, as the host Celtics are installed as a 4-point favorite for Game 6 against the Lakers. However, the betting public has taken hold of the Boston run, and over 80% of early bettors are backing that backing that side of the pointspread. Most often, that bodes well for the opponent. Still, one more win on the home court and the Celtics are NBA champions. Here’s a look at Tuesday night’s showdown.

The Boston Celtics may be home, not home free. Unable to put the finishing touches on the Los Angeles Lakers and wrap up their first championship since 1986, the NBA’s best team since November flew back across three time zones Monday for a Game 6 they were hoping they wouldn’t have to play.

But injuries, another big first-half deficit and a sub-par performance by center Kevin Garnett cost the banged-up Celtics, who lost 103-98 on Sunday in Game 5 at Los Angeles and left Staples Center kicking themselves at the missed opportunity.

The Larry O’Brien Trophy, given each year to the league’s top team, was nearly Boston’s. At one point, it appeared to be on its way to the floor for an awards ceremony now on hold. Instead of being hoisted by the Celtics, it was hauled off to LAX and loaded into a jet’s cargo hold for the six-hour flight to New England.

Despite the loss, the tradition-drenched Celtics feel good about their chances of winning a 17th title—on the 17th.

“We’re one up, with two games to go at home,” said Paul Pierce, who scored 38 in Game 5. “It still feels like we have the advantage, and I do feel like we’re the better team.”

So the 11th installment of Celtics vs. Lakers, the league’s signature rivalry and one of the best in pro sports, has at least one more 48-minute episode. After a 21-year gap between finals meetings, these teams aren’t quite ready to part company. Why would they?

Now five games old, this series has had plenty of drama (Pierce’s return from a Game 1 knee injury), history (Boston’s finals record 24-point comeback in Game 4), surprises (Leon Powe’s emergence as a Game 2 star) and even a little scandal as former referee Tim Donaghy’s allegations of fixed playoff games has hung over the finals like a layer of L.A. smog.

The Lakers are trying to become the first team in finals history to overcome a 3-1 deficit to win a title, and they’re one step closer. If they can win Game 6 on Tuesday night in TD Banknorth Garden, they’ll force a decisive Game 7 to cap a season as trying as any in commissioner David Stern’s career.

Kobe Bryant and his teammates staved off elimination Sunday by getting more physical with the Celtics, who Tuesday night will play their 26th game of this postseason—a record—and could be wearing down physically.

Los Angeles center Pau Gasol shed his “soft” label for a night and scored 19 points with 13 rebounds, banging his way inside against Garnett, the league’s best defender who couldn’t push back at the Spaniard while hampered with fouls.

Garnett was disgusted by his game and Boston’s big man vowed to make amends when the Celtics get back inside their rowdy house on Causeway Street, where Boston’s fans arrive early, party late and treat visitors with little regard.

Lakers, you’ve been warned.

With just one day off in the highly debated 2-3-2 format, Boston coach Doc Rivers expects Game 6 to be a struggle, just as Game 3 was back in Los Angeles after just a single travel day off.

“It’s a terrible turnaround,” he said. “It’s as tough as you can have. I think going West to East is tougher. Sleep patterns are messed up. It’s a tough one. There’s no way around it. But both teams have the same issue, so it could come down to a game of mental toughness, who fights the fatigue mentally better than the other group.”

The group wearing green has other issues.

Celtics center Kendrick Perkins missed Game 5 with a shoulder injury and is not expected to be ready for Game 6. Beyond that, Pierce isn’t at his best, Rajon Rondo is slowed by a tender ankle and Ray Allen left Los Angeles immediately following Sunday’s game because of a “health issue” with one of his three children.

But Boston is comforted by being at home, where they are 12-1 in the postseason, where the parquet-patterned floor soothes any nerves and where the 16 championship banners hanging overhead link the Celtics to their past and remind them of their goal.

Looking at some of the Top StatFox Power Trends in play for Game 6, most favor the hosts, including:

* LA LAKERS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 94.7, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 3*)

* BOSTON is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.5, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 3*)

However, the Lakers were 31-17 ATS on the road this season, and Phil Jackson’s Lakers’ teams have been solid down the stretch on the road against the league’s best:

* Jackson is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of LA LAKERS.
The average score was LA LAKERS 95.8, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 1*)

The game figures to come down to the Boston defense’s ability to smother the Lakers once again. Aside from a handful of quarters throughout the series, the Celtics defense has been the most dominating aspect of the series. Of course, with the pointspread finally at a spot where the Lakers will have a realistic chance to win ATS, Boston could win its title without covering the number. Now that would be strange.

NBA: Role players are the wagering key in Game 4
2008-06-12

The tape of Game 3 of the NBA Finals between Boston and Los Angeles won’t be sent to the Basketball Hall of Fame, with a grand total of four players scoring in double figures and the total coming in 27.5-points below projected oddsmakers’ number. Game 4 offers new and exciting wagering opportunities, including a 7-point spread on which 72% of early bettors are backing the underdog Celtics.

Regardless of how it looked, the series picked up some juice with the Lakers winning, meaning everyone is able to stay the weekend in Los Angeles and maybe head down the coast and catch a little U.S. Open golf action. Kobe Bryant finally stepped up his game with 36 points and no way L.A. wins without the 20 from Sasha Vujacic. For Boston, this had to be mildly disheartening, Ray Allen is starting to place like the guy who wore a Seattle and Milwaukee uniform previously, but Paul Pierce managed to miss 14 of 16 shot attempts.

Before pressing on, this 2-3-2 format is proven how stupid it really is this season. ESPN’s John Barry was quoted after Game 3 (as was Phil Jackson) saying he thought it was a jet lag game. Neither team was sharp from flying cross country. Fair enough, then why will their be two games in this series played with two days of rest in the same city, with potentially another cross-country flight with just one day between the sports most important games?

Game Four of the series will be about who shows up to make a meaningful contribution. In the boxscore, Lamar Odom is listed as PF, commonly known as power forward and Vlad Radmanovic is shown as SF, a shooting forward. Odom has was once again a non-factor, shooting 2-9 and seldom in position to make positive plays, yet maybe in his case, the PF stands for personal fouls, since he picked up five again. Vlad Rad saw his minutes fall to 13, as his defensive deficiencies are visibly noticed and his lack of offense (3 points) can not overcome.

If the Lakers expect to improve upon 11-3-1 ATS record off a win, both of those players along with Pau Gasol and Derek Fisher have to play with more aplomb. Gasol has been as soft as a marshmallow in the middle, making his chest-thumping appear comical, when like an NFL cornerback burned six times in a row, jumps up to celebrate after he made a big hit on receiver 20 yards down the field. Coming into the Finals, it was thought Fisher’s experience would create an edge over the Celtics Rajon Rondo, it hasn’t. If the Lakers expect to make this a best two of three, the aforementioned four individuals have to bring their game and attitude to Staples Center for Los Angeles to win and move to 9-3 ATS as home favorites.

For all the good Rondo had done in Boston, he was discombobulated when Bryant started Game 3 guarding him. He was unable to get into the flow thereafter, before rolling is ankle, making him questionable for tonight. This becomes a real issue for the Celtics, since Rondo whole game is based on quickness and speed, without these traits, Sam Cassell and Eddie House are next options, suggesting these slow afoot, shoot-first point guards may see greater ball pressure from the Lakers, as well as double-teaming to force them to make snap judgments. Coach Doc Rivers will need to implore his back-ups to get the ball over half court quicker, since on average, the Celtics start their offensive sets just under three seconds slower when Rondo is not in the game in this series. How this trio plays tonight, will go a long way in determining what Boston’s 3-7 ATS road record will be after the game.

For the C’s to rebound in Game 4, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett can not play the same again. Pierce played like was pushing too hard, trying to prove to posse; he was California cool, while showing street toughness being back home on the big stage. Look for him to be more relaxed, after practicing a few gang signs. Boston is 29-12 against the spread on the road after playing as an underdog and Garnett personally let a golden opportunity slip thru his fingers. Garnett was 6-21, totaling 13 points. When he set up shop in or near the lane, the less athletic Gasol is rendered useless to stop him. When he drifted out on the perimeter as he often prefers to, coach Phil Jackson could have gotten Radmanovic more minutes.

When asked after Game 3 why he didn’t demand the ball more in the post, since the Celtics offense is more fluid, Garnett responded, "...Hell, if I knew that, I would have done it ... Obviously in the course of a game you try to mix things up ... but for the most part, I watched this game ... But you're right. I probably do need to take the ball to the basket a little more." Just think about how good he would have been playing with Michael Jordan as second fiddle.

As expected, a win by the favorite means the number goes down and the Lakers are 7.5-point favorites with Total having dipped to 191 at Sportsbook.com. The Celtics have covered each contest in this series and are 8-1 ATS when underdogs in the 5-10 point range. Los Angeles has yet to cover versus the C’s in five tries this season.

Even with the total dropping, coach Rivers club is 14-6 UNDER as a road underdog this season, while L.A. is 16-4 UNDER after a win by six points or less this season.

Expect the stars to shine with tipoff set for 9:05 Eastern, since they will ultimately decide Game 4, however it will be the other players for both teams that will put these individuals in position to be adored.

StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 5

NBA: Betting NBA Finals ā€“ Opinions vary
2008-06-04

The NBA Finals will start on Thursday in Boston and not unexpectedly, StatFox Steve and StatFox Doug see this series very differently. Los Angeles is a -200 favorite at Sportsbook.com to win the series. Hereā€™s a look at how the guys think it might play out.

In a unique version of the StatFox Scuffle, we thought we would throw questions at them about the Finals and let them share their feelings. Always insightful and never dull, here is what our guys had to say about crowning an NBA champion.

Were you surprised to see the Lakers at -200 favorites for the series?

StatFox Steve: I was very surprised to see Los Angeles as a favorite at all. I think oddsmakers are putting way more stock into what has happened in the postseason than the entire body of work for 2007-08. Letā€™s not forget, Boston won 66 games in the regular season and was the cream of the crop in the NBA from start to finish.

StatFox Doug: I wasnā€™t surprised the Lakers were favored to win the Finals, what did surprise me was the first couple of sportsbooks I looked at had Kobe and company at -160, which meant they were wagered heavily. Some might be shocked to see the Lakers favored at all, with regular season record and owning home court advantage, but Los Angeles played in tougher conference and has been by appearance, the best team in the playoffs.

Matchups are extremely important during the playoffs, who has the edge in the backcourt?

SF Doug: Obvious edge here to the Lakers, just having Kobe Bryant. Ray Allen will try to guard Bryant; however it will be fruitless task. Allen responsibility will be to stay within single digits of Bryant on offense, negating his considerable edge. Allen has shot better in recent games and will be fully rested, providing him energy. The other matchup might be more a mismatch. Rajon Rondo is a 50-50 or 60-40 guy. For every brilliant play he makes, heā€™ll do something equally dumb or on his better games be more proficient 60 percent of the time. Derek Fisher has seen every type of player in his career and will play a few mental games with Rondo.

SF Steve: I think anytime you have a player like Kobe Bryant on the court for a team, that team is going to have the advantage in terms of discussing particular matchups. Unless Cassell is able to step up his play and be a bigger factor in this series, the Lakers are going to have a large talent, execution, and experience edge in this area. Bryant & Derek Fisher boast a wealth of playoff experience, while for Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo, this is a first Finals trip.

What about the frontcourt?

SF Steve: Los Angeles has a decent frontcourt with Gasol and Odom being very versatile big men, but Garnett and Pierce make up an elite forward-center combo. I think the ability to produce most of their points in this area gives the Celtics a sizeable edge in this area. Plus, Garnett is one of the leagueā€™s best defensive players. Gasol is thought of as soft on that end of the court. He is going to have to be very tough physically in the series to contain K.G.

SF Doug: This could be the swing aspect of the series. If Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and almost more importantly, Kendrick Perkins play their best, they will place a great deal of pressure on the Lakers frontline. The L.A. frontcourt has players like Paul Gasol and Lamar Odom who are not always mentally in the game. If things start getting rough underneath how will they respond? Overall, this category has to favor Boston, but difficult to determine by what measure.

What team has more weapons coming off the bench?

SF Doug: This is a decided edge for the Lakers. Sasha Vujacic can be instant offense off the bench and bring energy. At 6ā€™7, the Celtics have nobody to guard him off screens and he has competent understanding of the Triangle-offense. Jordan Farmar can be tenacious defender and Luke Walton seemingly can provide whatever coach Phil Jackson needs. This style of play in this series would seem to favor Waltonā€™s talents. Boston counters with Eddie House and Sam Cassell, hard time seeing either making significant contributions. If the Cā€™s are to negate the Lakers advantage off the pine, it will have to come from Leon Powe, P.J. Brown or James Posey. Expect Lakers to have double digit edge in most games off the bench.

SF Steve: So much of what Boston does comes from its starting five and in particular the ā€Big Threeā€¯. Los Angeles has a number of more qualified role players from which to get contributions from. I guess Iā€™d have to give the bench edge to the Lakers, although with the number of minutes the Celtics starters play, I donā€™t think this will have a big role in the series. The Finals games are spread out fairly evenly allowing for ample rest. Letā€™s face it; both teams are fatigued at this point in the year due to playing 100+ games.

How big a part will coaching have in the Finals?

SF Steve: The teams know each other by now after playing so many games, so only the little adjustments that the coaches make can be a difference. Phil Jacksonā€™s experience plus the fact that he boasts a player that takes the game into his own hands in Bryant gives him the edge.

SF Doug: There is a reason why only six coaches have won the last 21 NBA titles. They have the best teams and know how to push the right buttons of professional basketball players. The skill or lack of is more noticeable in the postseason for head coaches, as the subtlety of adjustments is on display from game to game. If youā€™ve listening to the coaches in the huddles, Phil Jackson devises plays and is essentially, coaching. Bostonā€™s Doc Rivers, on the other hand is more a cheerleader and life coach, asking his players to keep pushing, giving effort. Rivers does have a staff that is very solid at Xā€™s and Oā€™s, yet on the gameā€™s biggest stage, Jackson is head and shoulders above Rivers.

Steve, seeing you like Boston, what will your Exact Games wager be?

You know, I like the fact that Boston was able to come up with two wins in Detroit in the East Finals. It put to rest any thoughts that the Celtics couldnā€™t win on the road in the playoffs after being the leagueā€™s best road team in the regular season. This confidence is what makes the difference in the series to me. I donā€™t expect the Celtics to sweep the games at home, and I donā€™t expect them to lose all the games on the road. Therefore, Iā€™ll be looking Sportsbook.com at just over 4-1 odds in a Game 7 in Boston, going with the home folks.

I think Boston has incredible value as a series underdog here. The Celtics have been the team to beat from wire-to-wire and 66 wins in the regular season is all the evidence you need to support that. They were 25-5 against the supposedly better Western Conference this year, including 2-0 against Los Angeles. In fact, the two wins in the regular season came by 13 & 19 points. I also think you need to consider the fact that Boston has been a much better team defensively this season than the Lakers. The fact that Los Angeles yields over 101 PPG & 44.4% FG shooting is clearly a concern. In their run to the Finals, they beat a Denver team whose defense is an afterthought, a Utah team that saves its best effort for the offensive end, and a tired San Antonio club. Meanwhile, the Celtics escaped Atlanta then played through two rugged seriesā€™ against strong defensive minded clubs. L.A.ā€™s defense will be a walk in the park after that. All of that, plus home court advantage has me backing Boston.

Doug, youā€™re backing the Lakers, what is wager on the same bet?

Iā€™m taking Los Angeles in six at 15-4 odds to be crowned champions for a 10th time since moving to SoCal. Many will bring up the Celtics beat the Lakers twice during the regular season and by double digits to boot. For those with short memories, Cleveland beat San Antonio twice last season and how did those finals conclude? One aspect to remember is star power. What player can take over a game in the fourth quarter to lead his team to victory? Has Kevin Garnett shown that quality often in the playoffs? What about Paul Pierce? Than you have the best player in the NBA, Kobe Bryant. His name is now frequently mentioned with Michael Jordan, for mental toughness and clutch performances. With three rings already, he can even the score with Shaq, donā€™t think thatā€™s not important. Take a look at all the teams that have won the NBA championship since 1980 and each had the best coach, with the best player, with one exception (Detroit- 2004) in 37 years. Los Angeles celebrates.

Who are you picking for series MVP?

SF Steve: Garnett. K.G. is going to be a load in the middle for the Lakers to contain. He is equally effective on both ends of the court as well and is probably the league best long term veteran player who has yet to sniff the finals. He is heady and experienced enough to take advantage of this opportunity. Though he might not be Bostonā€™s leading scorer for the series, I think he will be its most important player and Iā€™ll take him at 5-2 odds.

SF Doug: Actually at 1-2, itā€™s impossible to bet on Kobe, but there is little doubt in my mind he is the man and walks off with daily double of season and series MVP.

NBA: Bettors backing Spurs to fend off elimination
2008-05-30

Even though the Los Angeles Lakers won’t be singing Willie Nelson’s, “Turn out the lights the party’s over” song, they will be trying to turn out the dim hopes of San Antonio Spurs for this season. However, Sportsbook.com bettors like the visitors’ chances to win or at least make tonight’s Game 5 a close affair.

Much like somebody trying to get a drink after last call, the Spurs Brent Barry’s last ditch effort, came up empty. It’s back to La-La Land, where the stars will be brighter than ever, looking to bask in the glow of the Lakers advancing to the NBA Finals.

It was unbelievable to watch Brent Barry get fouled on the game’s last play, (he did) and San Antonio not make a huge stink about it. The Spurs players were maybe too stunned to react and coach Greg Popovich’s infamous stare would zero impact. The fact remains, San Antonio had no business stealing that game, since they did little over the course of 48 minutes to do so.

After a brilliant Game 3, Manu Ginobili played like he just saw the premiere episode of Denise Richards reality TV-show, “It’s Complicated”. The Lakers defenders did a significantly better job of making the Argentinean go to his right and he was held to just seven points, which affected his defense also.

Though constantly double-teamed from different angles, Duncan scored 29 and grabbed 17 boards, yet he’ll be haunted by missing more one-foot shots (7) than a 10-year old at basketball camp. This situation does not set up well for San Antonio, with 24-25 record this season on the road, with only 18 covers.

What has changed from last year to this season for the Spurs to be in this predicament? Start with being one year older across the board. San Antonio knew they could beat weak-minded Phoenix, owned more experience than New Orleans, but the Lakers are different. They are long to clog up the middle; they have fresher and younger legs and have the only coach that can truly match wits with Popovich in Phil Jackson. The last point might be the most important, as teams or players age, they lack the ability to take it to the rim and finish. San Antonio’s best three players in the paint are Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker, the latter two being guards. The rest of the roster is essentially jump-shooters, leaving the team at the mercy of how they shoot. When L.A. has clogged the paint to stop everyone but Mr. Fundamental, they’ve won.

The Lakers are 7-0 (5-2 ATS) at the Staples Center in the postseason and are the last team still playing not to lose on the home hardwood. Los Angeles is up to 10-2-1 ATS after a straight up win and coach Jackson has again adroitly used his roster to the team’s advantage. He knows his club has a speed and quickness edge in this series. Jackson makes great adjustments, but more importantly, he knows almost immediately what he will receive from his bench players. Vlade Radmanovic has played exceptional at times; Sasha Vujacic has played extended minutes when he shoots well and Jordan Farmar has been defensive dynamo in short spurts. Though his minutes will vary greatly depending on opposition, Luke Walton was a big contributor off the pine in Game 4.

The Lakers opened as 7.5-point favorites at Sportsbook.com and were quickly bet up to eight. It would be foolish beyond comprehension to believe San Antonio will just show up and play like the Memphis Grizzlies. This team and whole organization is too proud and has the heart of a champion and is 14-5 against the spread in Conference Finals for a reason. They will have to be contrarian to what they have been all season, with 2-10 ATS mark in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season.

All four games in this series have gone Under to total and linemakers have established Game 5 at 193.5. Los Angeles is 8-2 UNDER after a win and San Antonio has played UNDER in last six games with a day’s rest.

TNT will broadcast this potential closing game, starting at 9 Eastern, with the Lakers 9-23 ATS in home games off a road win by three points or less, with winning margin 3.6 points.

StatFox Power Line- L.A. Lakers by 5